State Pension set to rise by £488 in April 2027 under triple lock guarantee - what could you get?

Millions of pensioners are set to see their their State Pension jump by 3.9% next April, adding £488 to annual income.

The increase would take the full state pension to £13,036 a year, up from the current £12,548.

Under the triple lock guarantee, the state pension rises by the highest of 2.5%, inflation or average earnings.

Average weekly earnings growth , including bonuses, for the three months to July 2026 has now come in at 3.9%.

September's inflation figure is always used for the calculation under the triple lock, but it is not expected to top 3.9% when it is revealed next month.

It means the latest earnings figure is likely to be the highest figure, raising the full new State Pension from £241.30 a week to £250.70 a week from April 2027.

The final increase won't be confirmed until September's inflation figure into account, which is released on 20 October.

How much will the full State Pension rise by in April 2027?

The government's triple lock means the State Pension increases each year by whichever is highest of:

• Average earnings growth for the three months to July

• CPI inflation in September

• 2.5%

The latest earnings figure of 3.9% is currently the highest of the three measures.

September's CPI inflation figure will be published in October.

If it comes in below 3.9%, and there are no significant revisions to the earnings data, a 3.9% State Pension increase is on the cards.

What happens when the State Pension rises above the personal allowance?

The forecast increase to the State Pension means pensioner annual income will be above the Personal Allowance for the first time.

The Personal Allowance is the amount of income most people can receive before paying Income Tax. It is currently frozen at £12,570.

However, the Labour government has previously said pensioners who solely rely on the State Pension as their source would not be liable for tax once it rises above the Personal Allowance.

The details on how this will work for pensioners who get the State Pension and - for example - a private pension have not yet been revealed.

It's expected the chancellor John Healey will provide more insight when he delivers the Autumn Budget next month.

State Pension is currently taxable income, but the amount of tax you actually pay depends on your total income and available allowances.

When is September's inflation figure released?

The inflation figure for September which is used as part of the triple lock calculation will be reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 21 September at 7am.

If September's CPI inflation figure comes in above 3.9%, the triple lock would instead use the higher inflation figure.

The latest figures put inflation in July at 2.9%. The data for August will be released tomorrow 16 September.

The 3.9% increase from earnings remains an expected increase, rather than a confirmed rate.

Will everyone get the full £250.70 a week?

The maximum amount under the forecast full rate of the new State Pension apply to someone entitled to the full amount.

How much you actually receive depends on your National Insurance record.

The full new State Pension is currently £241.30 a week, but the amount you receive can be different depending on factors including your qualifying National Insurance years.

If you want to check what you personally could receive, you can use the Government's State Pension forecast service.